The Impact of Macroeconomics and Halal Certification on Exports: Evidence of Indonesian Halal Product 2012 – 2022

Abstract

The global halal market is currently dominated by non-Muslim-majority countries like China, India, Brazil, and the United States. Despite its large Muslim population, Indonesia has not fully capitalized on exporting its halal natural resources. This study examines the impact of macroeconomic factors (inflation, exchange rates, GDP, and FDI) and halal certification on Indonesian halal product exports. This research employs a quantitative method with a causal research design. The data used are quarterly time series data from 2012 to 2022, analyzed with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The results show that in the short term, inflation, GDP, and FDI have a significant negative impact, exchange rates have a significant positive impact, and halal certification has no significant effect on the export of Indonesian halal products. In the long term, neither macroeconomic factors such as inflation, exchange rates, GDP, and FDI, nor halal certification, have a significant effect on the export of Indonesian halal products.